🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as SJK defy the odds to beat Ilves 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SJK beat Ilves 2-3 at Tammelan Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 2.19 xG and SJK 1.19 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. SJK outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.32 / defence 0.81 against SJK attack 0.95 / defence 1.21, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ilves 60% | Draw 20% | SJK 20%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a SJK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 48%, SJK 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

SJK's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ilves 1.61 PPG, SJK 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SJK win broke the near-deadlock. Ilves (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SJK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights