Ilves 2-2 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ilves at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ilves vs SJK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ilves and SJK meet at Tammelan Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 19 June 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ilves's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tammelan Stadion, Ilves have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Tammelan Stadion this season.
SJK have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, SJK have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Ilves's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of SJK's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ilves have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, SJK in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ilves lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with SJK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Ilves — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
SJK — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 59% versus SJK 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 56% | SJK 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 2.06 xG and SJK 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.323 / defence 1.116 | SJK attack 1.053 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.280. Ilves carry an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 34 Ilves games / 34 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 49% | Draw 24% | SJK 27%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | SJK 3.70. Ilves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 69% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
Poisson rates Ilves as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ilves if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 70% | SJK 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Tammelan Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Jun 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 49% | Draw 24% | SJK 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Ilves 2.06 / SJK 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.323 / def 1.116 | SJK attack 1.053 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Ilves (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.50
SJK xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs SJK kick off?
Ilves vs SJK kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 19 June 2024 at Tammelan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs SJK?
Ilves 2 - 2 SJK.
Where is Ilves vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Tammelan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs SJK part of?
Ilves vs SJK is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 49% chance of winning, SJK a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Ilves and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and SJK?
Record (2 meetings): Ilves 0W | Draws 1 | SJK 1W.
What form are Ilves and SJK in?
Ilves (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. SJK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ilves's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against SJK's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. Flip it around — SJK's attack (1.05x) against Ilves's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
49%
2.03
24%
4.20
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Ilves xG
Total xG
3.57
1.50
SJK xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.24
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
13%
7.86
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
3%
29.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Ilves and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Ilves and 1.50 for SJK, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Ilves have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 17W 16D 21L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SJK's form line: 21W 12D 21L from 54 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Ilves against 1.39 for SJK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ilves have posted 1.22 PPG from 27 outings (9W 6D 12L).
On the road, SJK have gone 8W 6D 13L from 27 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Ilves are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.26 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
SJK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and SJK in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 17W 16D 21L in their last 54 games (1.24 PPG), while SJK have gone 21W 12D 21L in their last 54 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or SJK away?
Ilves's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 1.22 PPG; SJK away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 4-0 on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Ilves
6
Draws
3
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 1, SJK have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Ilves 2-2 SJK.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 67%, SJK 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Ilves) and 33% (SJK).
On the defensive side: SJK in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play SJK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Ilves's recent matches and 41% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ilves vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Ilves's recent games and 33% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ilves and SJK tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, SJK in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ilves and SJK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves and SJK finished level at 2-2 at Tammelan Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 2.06 xG and SJK 1.50 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.32 / defence 1.12 against SJK attack 1.05 / defence 1.03, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 49% | Draw 24% | SJK 27%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 56%, SJK 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
SJK's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ilves 1.24 PPG, SJK 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SJK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.