Ilves 2-0 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ilves (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ilves face Mariehamn.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mariehamn make the trip to Tammelan Stadion to face Ilves in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 August 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ilves have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ilves have posted 6W 2D 2L at Tammelan Stadion — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mariehamn's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Ilves. A 0.80 PPG lead over Mariehamn (1.60 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Ilves, 1 for Mariehamn and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Ilves winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Mariehamn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 53% versus Mariehamn 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 51% | Mariehamn 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 2.40 xG and Mariehamn 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.357 / defence 1.011 | Mariehamn attack 0.757 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.670 / away 1.399. Ilves carry an above-average attack strength of 1.357 — their λ of 2.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Ilves games / 39 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 66% | Draw 19% | Mariehamn 15%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | Mariehamn 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Ilves (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.40 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ilves are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.47 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ilves 60% | Mariehamn 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Tammelan Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 66% | Draw 19% | Mariehamn 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 60% | xG Ilves 2.40 / Mariehamn 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.357 / def 1.011 | Mariehamn attack 0.757 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.670 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Ilves (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Mariehamn xG
60%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs Mariehamn kick off?
Ilves vs Mariehamn kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Tammelan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Ilves 2 - 0 Mariehamn.
Where is Ilves vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Tammelan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs Mariehamn part of?
Ilves vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 66% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ilves and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Mariehamn?
Record (6 meetings): Ilves 3W | Draws 2 | Mariehamn 1W.
What form are Ilves and Mariehamn in?
Ilves (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Mariehamn (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ilves's attack at 1.36x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 2.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.76x) against Ilves's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
66%
1.51
19%
5.37
15%
6.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Ilves xG
Total xG
3.47
1.07
Mariehamn xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.37
19%
Draw
6.66
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
9%
10.98
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
1%
73.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Ilves and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Ilves and 1.07 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ilves's recent record stands at 17W 14D 14L from 45 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 24L across 45 games — 0.91 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ilves by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mariehamn heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ilves have managed 9W 7D 6L from 22 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 5W 5D 12L across 22 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ilves are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.04 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 17W 14D 14L in their last 45 games (1.44 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 10W 11D 24L in their last 45 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or Mariehamn away?
Ilves's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 1.55 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Ilves or Mariehamn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Mariehamn in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 1-5 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ilves
3
Draws
2
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 5, Mariehamn have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Mariehamn 2-2 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and Mariehamn?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 64%, Mariehamn 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Ilves and 54% for Mariehamn. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play Mariehamn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Ilves's games and 59% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ilves vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Ilves's matches and 54% of Mariehamn's.
Do Ilves and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ilves cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat Mariehamn 2-0 at Tammelan Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 2.40 xG and Mariehamn 1.07 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Mariehamn landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.36 / defence 1.01 against Mariehamn attack 0.76 / defence 1.06, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 66% | Draw 19% | Mariehamn 15%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 51%, Mariehamn 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mariehamn's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. Ilves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.