Ilves 1-3 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 42%, yet in-form KuPS provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ilves vs KuPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ilves and KuPS meet at Tammela Stadium in Veikkausliiga (matchday 1). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Ilves's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Ilves's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Ilves are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
KuPS have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
KuPS away from home: 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
KuPS arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for Ilves, 3 for KuPS and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Oct 2025, ended Ilves 1–1 KuPS — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ilves — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
KuPS — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 54% versus KuPS 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 63% | KuPS 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.62 xG and KuPS 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.021 / defence 0.998 | KuPS attack 1.016 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.251. Data: built from Ilves's last 22 games and KuPS's last 22. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ilves 42% | Draw 31% | KuPS 27%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 2.37 | Draw 3.22 | KuPS 3.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.62 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ilves are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form KuPS (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ilves if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Ilves's last 10 home games and KuPS's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ilves 90% (last 10 home games) | KuPS 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Ilves 22 games, KuPS 22) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 1 | Venue: Tammela Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 42% | Draw 31% | KuPS 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Ilves 1.62 / KuPS 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.021 / def 0.998 | KuPS attack 1.016 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Ilves (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.27
KuPS xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ilves vs KuPS FAQs
What time does Ilves vs KuPS kick off?
Ilves vs KuPS kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Tammela Stadium.
What was the final score in Ilves vs KuPS?
Ilves 1 - 3 KuPS.
Where is Ilves vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Tammela Stadium.
What competition is Ilves vs KuPS part of?
Ilves vs KuPS is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 1) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 42% chance of winning, KuPS a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Ilves and KuPS will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ilves vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ilves's attack rating (1.02) and KuPS's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (1.02x) against Ilves's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from Ilves's last 22 games and KuPS's last 22, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
42%
2.37
31%
3.22
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Ilves xG
Total xG
2.88
1.27
KuPS xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
12%
8.43
5%
18.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ilves vs KuPS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Ilves and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Ilves and 1.27 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Ilves have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 34W 12D 13L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
KuPS's form line: 37W 12D 10L from 59 games, 2.08 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.93 PPG for Ilves against 2.08 for KuPS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ilves have posted 2.24 PPG from their last 29 home games (20W 5D 4L).
On the road, KuPS have gone 13W 11D 5L from their last 29 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ilves are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.83 scored and 0.98 conceded. Ilves's scoring rate against KuPS's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Current Season
KuPS
Current Season
Ilves (Home) vs KuPS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ilves
Current Season
KuPS
Current Season
❓ Ilves vs KuPS Form FAQs
What form are Ilves and KuPS in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 34W 12D 13L in their last 59 games (1.93 PPG), while KuPS have gone 37W 12D 10L in their last 59 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or KuPS away?
Ilves's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 2.24 PPG; KuPS away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Ilves or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, KuPS in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Ilves and KuPS, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was on 23 June 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
KuPS have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won Ilves 0-3 KuPS on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 2W 1D 3L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ilves
1
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Ilves vs KuPS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and KuPS?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ilves have won 4, KuPS have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ilves and KuPS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 June 2026: KuPS 4-3 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 66%, KuPS 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Ilves and 45% for KuPS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; KuPS in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ilves vs KuPS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ilves and KuPS matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Ilves's games and 55% of KuPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ilves and KuPS matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Ilves's matches and 45% of KuPS's.
Do Ilves and KuPS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Ilves's recent matches and 62% of KuPS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KuPS cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ilves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Ilves 1-3 at Tammela Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.62 xG and KuPS 1.27 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. KuPS outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.02 / defence 1.00 against KuPS attack 1.02 / defence 0.96, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 42% | Draw 31% | KuPS 27%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual KuPS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 63%, KuPS 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
KuPS's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ilves 1.93 PPG, KuPS 2.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KuPS win broke the near-deadlock. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.