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Dominant Ilves run riot with a 3-0 hammering of KuPS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ilves beat KuPS 3-0 at Tammelan Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.83 xG and KuPS 1.95 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ilves beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. KuPS landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.37 / defence 1.04 against KuPS attack 1.17 / defence 0.83, drawn from 29/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ilves 37% | Draw 21% | KuPS 42%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Ilves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 48%, KuPS 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.61. Form was overturned, with Ilves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights