Ilves 1-2 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ilves vs KuPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ilves and KuPS meet at Tammelan Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Friday 31 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ilves's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Tammelan Stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Tammelan Stadion this season.
KuPS have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
KuPS arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ilves, 1 for KuPS and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 0–3 with KuPS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ilves — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
KuPS — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 59% versus KuPS 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 56% | KuPS 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.54 xG and KuPS 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.352 / defence 1.071 | KuPS attack 1.003 / defence 0.723. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.279. Ilves carry an above-average attack strength of 1.352 — their λ of 1.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. KuPS's defence strength of 0.723 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 31 Ilves games / 31 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 38% | Draw 31% | KuPS 30%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | KuPS 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ilves are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form KuPS (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ilves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 70% | KuPS 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Tammelan Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 31 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 38% | Draw 31% | KuPS 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 62% | xG Ilves 1.54 / KuPS 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.352 / def 1.071 | KuPS attack 1.003 / def 0.723 | league avg home 1.581 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Ilves (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.37
KuPS xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs KuPS kick off?
Ilves vs KuPS kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 31 May 2024 at Tammelan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs KuPS?
Ilves 1 - 2 KuPS.
Where is Ilves vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Tammelan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs KuPS part of?
Ilves vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 38% chance of winning, KuPS a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Ilves and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and KuPS?
Record (1 meetings): Ilves 0W | Draws 0 | KuPS 1W.
What form are Ilves and KuPS in?
Ilves (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. KuPS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ilves's attack rating (1.35) and KuPS's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (1.00x) against Ilves's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
38%
2.63
31%
3.18
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Ilves xG
Total xG
2.92
1.37
KuPS xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
10%
10.38
7%
15.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Ilves and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Ilves and 1.37 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Ilves have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 17W 16D 21L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS's form line: 33W 11D 10L from 54 games, 2.04 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ilves.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ilves have posted 1.27 PPG from 26 outings (9W 6D 11L).
On the road, KuPS have gone 15W 6D 5L from 26 away games — 1.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ilves are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.56 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and KuPS in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 17W 16D 21L in their last 54 games (1.24 PPG), while KuPS have gone 33W 11D 10L in their last 54 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 1.27 PPG; KuPS away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Ilves or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, KuPS in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
KuPS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 0-3 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ilves
1
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 4, KuPS have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2026, when KuPS 4-3 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 65%, KuPS 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Ilves) and 42% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play KuPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Ilves's games and 46% of KuPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ilves vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Ilves's recent games and 42% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ilves and KuPS tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, KuPS in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as KuPS defy the odds to beat Ilves 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Ilves 1-2 at Tammelan Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.54 xG and KuPS 1.37 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.35 / defence 1.07 against KuPS attack 1.00 / defence 0.72, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 38% | Draw 31% | KuPS 30%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual KuPS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 56%, KuPS 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.