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Prediction vindicated as Ilves edge out Kooteepee 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ilves beat Kooteepee 2-1 at Tammelan Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 2.95 xG and Kooteepee 1.13 xG, a combined 4.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ilves fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.20 / defence 0.99 against Kooteepee attack 0.76 / defence 1.55, drawn from 35/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ilves 74% | Draw 14% | Kooteepee 11%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 75%, Kooteepee 83%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ilves's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Kooteepee's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.75. Form held, and they took the win. Kooteepee (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.20 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights