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Prediction vindicated as Inter Turku edge out Ilves 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter Turku beat Ilves 1-2 at Tammelan Stadion, Championship Round - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.43 xG and Inter Turku 1.44 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.07 / defence 0.88 against Inter Turku attack 0.99 / defence 0.80, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ilves 36% | Draw 27% | Inter Turku 37%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 61%, Inter Turku 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Inter Turku's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ilves 1.98 PPG, Inter Turku 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inter Turku win broke the near-deadlock. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights