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Shock result as Ilves defy the odds to beat Inter Turku 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ilves beat Inter Turku 1-0 at Tammelan Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.50 xG and Inter Turku 1.79 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Inter Turku landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.16 / defence 1.00 against Inter Turku attack 1.12 / defence 0.82, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ilves 31% | Draw 25% | Inter Turku 43%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Ilves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 60%, Inter Turku 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ilves's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Inter Turku's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ilves 1.98 PPG, Inter Turku 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ilves win broke the near-deadlock. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Inter Turku (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights