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Prediction vindicated as Ilves edge out Haka 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ilves beat Haka 3-2 at Tammelan Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 2.01 xG and Haka 1.68 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ilves beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.30 / defence 1.03 against Haka attack 1.09 / defence 1.04, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ilves 46% | Draw 21% | Haka 33%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 48%, Haka 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Haka's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ilves 1.61 PPG, Haka 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ilves win broke the near-deadlock. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Haka (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights