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Prediction vindicated as Ilves edge out FF Jaro 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ilves beat FF Jaro 2-1 at Tammelan Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.90 xG and FF Jaro 1.47 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.25 / defence 1.07 against FF Jaro attack 0.94 / defence 0.93, drawn from 23/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Ilves 48% | Draw 22% | FF Jaro 30%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 50%, FF Jaro 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Ilves managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FF Jaro shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights