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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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KuPS cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over HJK Helsinki.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KuPS beat HJK Helsinki 0-2 at Bolt Arena, Championship Round - 10, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting HJK Helsinki 2.10 xG and KuPS 1.60 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. HJK Helsinki fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HJK Helsinki attack 1.52 / defence 1.04 against KuPS attack 0.93 / defence 0.82, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it HJK Helsinki 49% | Draw 23% | KuPS 29%, with HJK Helsinki to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual KuPS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HJK Helsinki 67%, KuPS 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

HJK Helsinki's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

KuPS's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.62. The form guide was vindicated by the result. HJK Helsinki (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward. KuPS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights