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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FF Jaro defy the odds to beat HJK Helsinki 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FF Jaro beat HJK Helsinki 2-3 at Bolt Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting HJK Helsinki 2.04 xG and FF Jaro 0.93 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. FF Jaro outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HJK Helsinki attack 1.21 / defence 0.83 against FF Jaro attack 0.74 / defence 1.06, drawn from 35/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it HJK Helsinki 63% | Draw 21% | FF Jaro 16%, with HJK Helsinki to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a FF Jaro win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HJK Helsinki 64%, FF Jaro 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

HJK Helsinki's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

FF Jaro's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, HJK Helsinki arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with FF Jaro winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. HJK Helsinki (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FF Jaro (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights