Haka 2-3 VPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haka at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haka vs VPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tehtaan kenttä plays host to Haka versus VPS in Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Haka (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haka have posted 4W 4D 2L at Tehtaan kenttä — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Haka are significantly better at Tehtaan kenttä than their overall form suggests.
VPS have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, VPS have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Haka against 1.10 for VPS. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Haka have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, VPS in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, VPS have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Haka's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 2–3 with VPS winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. VPS have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Haka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
VPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 60% versus VPS 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 57% | VPS 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.77 xG and VPS 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 1.047 / defence 1.088 | VPS attack 0.884 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.249. Data: 44 Haka games / 44 VPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 50% | Draw 25% | VPS 25%. Fair-value odds: Haka 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | VPS 4.00. Haka hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Haka as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haka if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Haka 60% | VPS 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 50% | Draw 25% | VPS 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Haka 1.77 / VPS 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 1.047 / def 1.088 | VPS attack 0.884 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Haka (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.20
VPS xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs VPS kick off?
Haka vs VPS kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs VPS?
Haka 2 - 3 VPS.
Where is Haka vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs VPS part of?
Haka vs VPS is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 50% chance of winning, VPS a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Haka and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and VPS?
Record (6 meetings): Haka 1W | Draws 1 | VPS 4W.
What form are Haka and VPS in?
Haka (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. VPS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Haka's attack rating (1.05) and VPS's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VPS's attack (0.88x) against Haka's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
50%
2.00
25%
4.06
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Haka xG
Total xG
2.97
1.20
VPS xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
4%
23.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Haka and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Haka and 1.20 for VPS, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs VPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Haka have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 18W 16D 19L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VPS's form line: 27W 9D 17L from 53 games, 1.70 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Haka against 1.70 for VPS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Haka have posted 1.58 PPG from 26 outings (9W 14D 3L).
On the road, VPS have gone 14W 3D 9L from 26 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Haka are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; VPS are on 1.57 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
VPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and VPS in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 18W 16D 19L in their last 53 games (1.32 PPG), while VPS have gone 27W 9D 17L in their last 53 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or VPS away?
VPS's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.58 PPG; VPS away: 1.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 26 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haka won 0-3 on 26 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haka have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haka
1
Draws
6
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and VPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 3, VPS have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haka and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2025, when VPS 1-0 Haka.
Who has won more matches between Haka and VPS?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 73%, VPS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Haka) and 58% (VPS).
On the defensive side: VPS in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play VPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Haka's games and 50% of VPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haka vs VPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Haka's recent games and 58% of VPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and VPS tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, VPS in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VPS defy the odds to beat Haka 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat Haka 2-3 at Tehtaan kenttä, Championship Round - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.77 xG and VPS 1.20 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. VPS outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 1.05 / defence 1.09 against VPS attack 0.88 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 50% | Draw 25% | VPS 25%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a VPS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 57%, VPS 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
VPS's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haka 1.32 PPG, VPS 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VPS win broke the near-deadlock. Haka (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.