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Prediction vindicated as SJK edge out Haka 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SJK beat Haka 2-3 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 21, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.31 xG and SJK 2.24 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 0.77 / defence 1.17 against SJK attack 1.19 / defence 1.03, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Haka 21% | Draw 21% | SJK 58%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 63%, SJK 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Haka's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

SJK's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Haka (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SJK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights