Haka 2-0 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Haka take on SJK.
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Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 6 as Haka welcome SJK to Tehtaan kenttä. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 May 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Haka have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka at Tehtaan kenttä this season: 3W 7D 0L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SJK stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SJK's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Haka have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Haka register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, SJK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Haka have won 2, SJK 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Haka winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Haka in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
SJK in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 62% versus SJK 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 57% | SJK 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.13 xG and SJK 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 0.929 / defence 0.982 | SJK attack 0.894 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.362. SJK's defence strength of 0.791 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 27 Haka games / 28 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 31% | Draw 36% | SJK 34%. Fair-value odds: Haka 3.23 | Draw 2.78 | SJK 2.94. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Haka 70% | SJK 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 31% | Draw 36% | SJK 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 51% | xG Haka 1.13 / SJK 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 0.929 / def 0.982 | SJK attack 0.894 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.20
SJK xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs SJK kick off?
Haka vs SJK kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs SJK?
Haka 2 - 0 SJK.
Where is Haka vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs SJK part of?
Haka vs SJK is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 31% chance of winning, SJK a 34% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Haka vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Haka and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and SJK?
Record (3 meetings): Haka 2W | Draws 0 | SJK 1W.
What form are Haka and SJK in?
Haka (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. SJK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Haka's attack at 0.93x the league average against SJK's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SJK's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.27
36%
2.81
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Haka xG
Total xG
2.33
1.20
SJK xG
3.27
31%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
9%
10.81
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Haka and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Haka and 1.20 for SJK, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Haka have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 21W 17D 18L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SJK's form line: 22W 12D 22L from 56 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haka on 1.43 PPG, SJK on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Haka have posted 1.67 PPG from 27 outings (11W 12D 4L).
On the road, SJK have gone 8W 6D 13L from 27 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Haka are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.25 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
SJK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and SJK in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 21W 17D 18L in their last 56 games (1.43 PPG), while SJK have gone 22W 12D 22L in their last 56 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or SJK away?
Haka's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.67 PPG; SJK away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haka and SJK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 25 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when SJK won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haka's record when hosting SJK specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haka
2
Draws
5
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 3, SJK have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haka and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2025, when Haka 2-3 SJK.
Who has won more matches between Haka and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 74%, SJK 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Haka) and 33% (SJK).
On the defensive side: SJK in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play SJK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Haka's games and 41% of SJK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haka vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Haka's recent games and 33% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and SJK tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, SJK in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haka cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SJK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat SJK 2-0 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 6, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.13 xG and SJK 1.20 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Haka beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SJK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against SJK attack 0.89 / defence 0.79, drawn from 27/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 31% | Draw 36% | SJK 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Haka win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 57%, SJK 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
SJK's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haka 1.43 PPG, SJK 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haka win broke the near-deadlock. Haka (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. SJK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.