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Shock result as Mariehamn defy the odds to beat Haka 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mariehamn beat Haka 0-1 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.95 xG and Mariehamn 1.43 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Haka fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 1.17 / defence 1.07 against Mariehamn attack 0.94 / defence 1.02, drawn from 23/23 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Haka 50% | Draw 22% | Mariehamn 28%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Mariehamn win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 59%, Mariehamn 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Haka's trading profile (56 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Mariehamn's trading profile (56 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Haka 1.32 PPG, Mariehamn 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. Haka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward. Mariehamn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights