Haka 1-3 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haka vs KuPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Haka host KuPS at Tehtaan kenttä in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Haka — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haka have posted 2W 4D 4L at Tehtaan kenttä — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, KuPS have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. KuPS's 2.20 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Haka's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Haka register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, KuPS in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Haka have won 2, KuPS 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with KuPS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Haka in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
KuPS in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 63% versus KuPS 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 61% | KuPS 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.17 xG and KuPS 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 0.870 / defence 0.933 | KuPS attack 1.027 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.614. Data: 28 Haka games / 29 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 29% | Draw 25% | KuPS 46%. Fair-value odds: Haka 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | KuPS 2.17. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KuPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Haka 80% | KuPS 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Friday 16 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 29% | Draw 25% | KuPS 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Haka 1.17 / KuPS 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 0.870 / def 0.933 | KuPS attack 1.027 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.557 / away 1.614 • Poisson stance: KuPS (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.55
KuPS xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs KuPS kick off?
Haka vs KuPS kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 16 May 2025 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs KuPS?
Haka 1 - 3 KuPS.
Where is Haka vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs KuPS part of?
Haka vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 29% chance of winning, KuPS a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Haka and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and KuPS?
Record (8 meetings): Haka 2W | Draws 3 | KuPS 3W.
What form are Haka and KuPS in?
Haka (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. KuPS (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Haka's attack at 0.87x the league average against KuPS's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, KuPS's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
29%
3.46
25%
3.97
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Haka xG
Total xG
2.72
1.55
KuPS xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
6%
16.24
14%
7.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Haka and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Haka and 1.55 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Haka come into this having played 54 games, going 19W 16D 19L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, KuPS sit at 2.02 PPG from 54 outings (33W 10D 11L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Haka — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Haka's home form reads 9W 12D 5L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, KuPS have taken 1.85 points per game from 26 outings (13W 9D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Haka are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.61 scored and 0.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: KuPS in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Current Season
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and KuPS in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 19W 16D 19L in their last 54 games (1.35 PPG), while KuPS have gone 33W 10D 11L in their last 54 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.50 PPG; KuPS away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Haka or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haka have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, KuPS in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haka and KuPS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 August 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
KuPS go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jun 2023, when KuPS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haka's record when hosting KuPS specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Haka
3
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 2, KuPS have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haka and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when KuPS 3-2 Haka.
Who has won more matches between Haka and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 73%, KuPS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Haka) and 42% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play KuPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Haka's games and 50% of KuPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haka vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Haka's recent games and 42% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and KuPS tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, KuPS in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KuPS cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Haka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Haka 1-3 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 7, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.17 xG and KuPS 1.55 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. KuPS outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 0.87 / defence 0.93 against KuPS attack 1.03 / defence 0.87, drawn from 28/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 29% | Draw 25% | KuPS 46%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 61%, KuPS 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Haka (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.