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Shock result as Kooteepee defy the odds to beat Haka 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kooteepee beat Haka 2-3 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 17, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.79 xG and Kooteepee 1.34 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Kooteepee outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 0.76 / defence 1.15 against Kooteepee attack 0.81 / defence 1.52, drawn from 38/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Haka 47% | Draw 25% | Kooteepee 28%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Kooteepee win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 56%, Kooteepee 81%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Haka's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Kooteepee's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Haka 1.00 PPG, Kooteepee 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kooteepee win broke the near-deadlock. Haka (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kooteepee (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights