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Prediction vindicated as Inter Turku edge out Haka 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter Turku beat Haka 0-1 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 14, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.03 xG and Inter Turku 1.99 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Haka fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Inter Turku landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 0.83 / defence 1.19 against Inter Turku attack 1.08 / defence 0.81, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Haka 18% | Draw 23% | Inter Turku 59%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 66%, Inter Turku 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Haka's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Inter Turku's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Haka 1.32 PPG, Inter Turku 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inter Turku win broke the near-deadlock. Haka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Inter Turku (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights