Haka 0-0 Inter Turku – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haka at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haka vs Inter Turku encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Inter Turku make the trip to Tehtaan kenttä to face Haka in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Wednesday 19 June 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Haka (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka's home record at Tehtaan kenttä: 3W 7D 0L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Inter Turku's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Inter Turku have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Haka's 1.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Inter Turku's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Haka lead 3W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2024, ended 1–3 with Inter Turku winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Haka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Inter Turku goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haka 62% and Inter Turku 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 57% | Inter Turku 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 2.24 xG and Inter Turku 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 1.161 / defence 0.926 | Inter Turku attack 0.861 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.280. Inter Turku bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing Haka's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Haka games / 34 Inter Turku games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 64% | Draw 22% | Inter Turku 15%. Fair-value odds: Haka 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Inter Turku 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Haka (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haka at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Haka 70% | Inter Turku 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs Inter Turku | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Jun 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 64% | Draw 22% | Inter Turku 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 58% | xG Haka 2.24 / Inter Turku 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 1.161 / def 0.926 | Inter Turku attack 0.861 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Haka (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Inter Turku xG
58%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs Inter Turku kick off?
Haka vs Inter Turku kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 19 June 2024 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs Inter Turku?
Haka 0 - 0 Inter Turku.
Where is Haka vs Inter Turku being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs Inter Turku part of?
Haka vs Inter Turku is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs Inter Turku?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 64% chance of winning, Inter Turku a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs Inter Turku?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Haka and Inter Turku will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs Inter Turku have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Inter Turku?
Record (6 meetings): Haka 3W | Draws 1 | Inter Turku 2W.
What form are Haka and Inter Turku in?
Haka (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Inter Turku (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Haka's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Inter Turku's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.24. Flip it around — Inter Turku's attack (0.86x) against Haka's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
64%
1.57
22%
4.63
15%
6.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Haka xG
Total xG
3.26
1.02
Inter Turku xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
6.80
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
11%
9.42
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
2%
64.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs Inter Turku?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Haka and Inter Turku expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Haka and 1.02 for Inter Turku, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs Inter Turku?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Haka's recent record stands at 21W 17D 18L from 56 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter Turku, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 26L across 56 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Haka against 1.21 for Inter Turku. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Haka have managed 12W 12D 4L from 28 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Inter Turku's away record stands at 8W 6D 14L across 28 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Haka are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Inter Turku are on 1.34 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Inter Turku in 62%.
Last 56 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
Inter Turku
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and Inter Turku in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 21W 17D 18L in their last 56 games (1.43 PPG), while Inter Turku have gone 19W 11D 26L in their last 56 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or Inter Turku away?
Haka's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.71 PPG; Inter Turku away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 July 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter Turku won 3-0 on 26 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haka have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Inter Turku — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haka
3
Draws
3
Inter Turku
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Inter Turku?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 4, Inter Turku have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haka and Inter Turku last play each other?
They last met on 6 July 2025, when Haka 0-1 Inter Turku.
Who has won more matches between Haka and Inter Turku?
Haka have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Inter Turku are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Haka, 64% for Inter Turku — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Haka) and 64% (Inter Turku). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter Turku in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / Inter Turku away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play Inter Turku?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Haka's games and 64% of Inter Turku's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haka vs Inter Turku usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Haka's matches and 64% of Inter Turku's.
Do Haka and Inter Turku tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Inter Turku in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Haka's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka and Inter Turku finished level at 0-0 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 12, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 2.24 xG and Inter Turku 1.02 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Haka fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Inter Turku landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 1.16 / defence 0.93 against Inter Turku attack 0.86 / defence 1.27, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 64% | Draw 22% | Inter Turku 15%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 57%, Inter Turku 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Inter Turku's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haka 1.43 PPG, Inter Turku 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Haka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Inter Turku (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.