🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Ilves run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Haka.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ilves beat Haka 0-4 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 12, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.22 xG and Ilves 1.97 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Haka fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Ilves outscored their 1.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 0.95 / defence 1.06 against Ilves attack 1.27 / defence 0.86, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Haka 23% | Draw 22% | Ilves 55%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 61%, Ilves 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Haka's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Haka 1.35 PPG, Ilves 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ilves win broke the near-deadlock. Haka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights