Haka 3-3 Gnistan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haka at 46%, yet in-form Gnistan provide a compelling counter-argument — this Haka vs Gnistan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Haka and Gnistan meet at Tehtaan kenttä in Veikkausliiga, Conference League Play-offs - 2nd Round. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Haka have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Haka at Tehtaan kenttä this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gnistan's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Gnistan have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Gnistan arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Haka register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Gnistan in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Haka, 1 for Gnistan and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2024, ended 1–2 with Gnistan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Haka — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Gnistan — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 57% versus Gnistan 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 57% | Gnistan 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.77 xG and Gnistan 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 1.045 / defence 1.085 | Gnistan attack 1.012 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.249. Data: 44 Haka games / 22 Gnistan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 46% | Draw 24% | Gnistan 29%. Fair-value odds: Haka 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Gnistan 3.45. Haka hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haka at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gnistan (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haka if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Haka 70% | Gnistan 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs Gnistan | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Conference League Play-offs - 2nd Round | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 46% | Draw 24% | Gnistan 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Haka 1.77 / Gnistan 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 1.045 / def 1.085 | Gnistan attack 1.012 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Haka (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Gnistan xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs Gnistan kick off?
Haka vs Gnistan kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs Gnistan?
Haka 3 - 3 Gnistan.
Where is Haka vs Gnistan being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs Gnistan part of?
Haka vs Gnistan is a Conference League Play-offs - 2nd Round fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs Gnistan?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 46% chance of winning, Gnistan a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs Gnistan?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Haka and Gnistan will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs Gnistan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Gnistan?
Record (2 meetings): Haka 1W | Draws 0 | Gnistan 1W.
What form are Haka and Gnistan in?
Haka (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Gnistan (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Haka vs Gnistan?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Haka's attack at 1.04x the league average against Gnistan's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gnistan's attack (1.01x) against Haka's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 44/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
46%
2.15
24%
4.13
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Haka xG
Total xG
3.14
1.37
Gnistan xG
2.15
46%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
17%
5.87
Win to Nil
12%
8.48
5%
20.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs Gnistan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Haka and Gnistan expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Haka and 1.37 for Gnistan, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs Gnistan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Haka's recent record stands at 13W 6D 11L from 30 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Gnistan, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 11L across 30 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Haka against 1.37 for Gnistan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Haka have managed 7W 4D 4L from 15 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gnistan's away record stands at 4W 4D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Haka are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Gnistan are on 1.37 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Current Season
Gnistan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and Gnistan in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 13W 6D 11L in their last 30 games (1.50 PPG), while Gnistan have gone 11W 8D 11L in their last 30 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or Gnistan away?
Haka's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.67 PPG; Gnistan away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Haka or Gnistan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haka have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Gnistan in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 13 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haka won 0-3 on 5 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haka have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Gnistan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Haka
1
Draws
2
Gnistan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Gnistan?
From 5 meetings on record, Haka have won 2, Gnistan have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haka and Gnistan last play each other?
They last met on 13 July 2025, when Gnistan 2-0 Haka.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Gnistan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Haka, 67% for Gnistan — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Haka and 60% for Gnistan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / Gnistan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play Gnistan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Haka's games and 67% of Gnistan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haka vs Gnistan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Haka's matches and 60% of Gnistan's.
Do Haka and Gnistan tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Gnistan in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haka and Gnistan share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka and Gnistan finished level at 3-3 at Tehtaan kenttä, Conference League Play-offs - 2nd Round, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.77 xG and Gnistan 1.37 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Haka beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gnistan outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 1.04 / defence 1.08 against Gnistan attack 1.01 / defence 1.05, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 46% | Draw 24% | Gnistan 29%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 57%, Gnistan 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Gnistan's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haka 1.50 PPG, Gnistan 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Haka (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gnistan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.