Haka 1-2 Gnistan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haka at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haka vs Gnistan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Haka and Gnistan meet at Tehtaan kenttä in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 July 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Haka have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka at Tehtaan kenttä this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tehtaan kenttä. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Haka are significantly better at Tehtaan kenttä than their overall form suggests.
Gnistan's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gnistan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gnistan have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Haka's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Gnistan's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Haka, 0 for Gnistan and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 3–0 with Haka winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Haka — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Gnistan — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 50% versus Gnistan 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 50% | Gnistan 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 2.43 xG and Gnistan 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 1.203 / defence 0.929 | Gnistan attack 0.999 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.500. Gnistan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Haka's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Haka games / 16 Gnistan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 60% | Draw 21% | Gnistan 20%. Fair-value odds: Haka 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Gnistan 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Haka (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.43 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haka at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.83 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Haka 50% | Gnistan 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs Gnistan | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 60% | Draw 21% | Gnistan 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 69% | xG Haka 2.43 / Gnistan 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 1.203 / def 0.929 | Gnistan attack 0.999 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.500 • Poisson stance: Haka (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.43
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Gnistan xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs Gnistan kick off?
Haka vs Gnistan kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs Gnistan?
Haka 1 - 2 Gnistan.
Where is Haka vs Gnistan being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs Gnistan part of?
Haka vs Gnistan is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs Gnistan?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 60% chance of winning, Gnistan a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs Gnistan?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Haka and Gnistan will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs Gnistan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Gnistan?
Record (1 meetings): Haka 1W | Draws 0 | Gnistan 0W.
What form are Haka and Gnistan in?
Haka (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Gnistan (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Haka's attack at 1.20x the league average against Gnistan's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 2.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gnistan's attack (1.00x) against Haka's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 38/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 3-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
60%
1.68
21%
4.85
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
3 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.43
Haka xG
Total xG
3.83
1.39
Gnistan xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.28
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
9%
11.40
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
2%
57.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs Gnistan?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Haka and Gnistan expected to score?
The model projects 2.43 expected goals for Haka and 1.39 for Gnistan, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs Gnistan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Haka's recent record stands at 9W 4D 5L from 18 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gnistan, meanwhile, have gone 3W 6D 9L across 18 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Gnistan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Haka by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gnistan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Haka have managed 6W 2D 1L from 9 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — Haka are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Gnistan's away record stands at 1W 4D 4L across 9 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Haka are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Gnistan are on 1.17 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Defensively: Haka have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
Gnistan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and Gnistan in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 9W 4D 5L in their last 18 games (1.72 PPG), while Gnistan have gone 3W 6D 9L in their last 18 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or Gnistan away?
Haka's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 2.22 PPG; Gnistan away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Haka or Gnistan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haka have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Gnistan in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 July 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haka won 0-3 on 5 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haka have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Gnistan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Haka
1
Draws
2
Gnistan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Gnistan?
From 5 meetings on record, Haka have won 2, Gnistan have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haka and Gnistan last play each other?
They last met on 13 July 2025, when Gnistan 2-0 Haka.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Gnistan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for Haka, 78% for Gnistan — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Haka) and 56% (Gnistan).
On the defensive side: Haka keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / Gnistan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play Gnistan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Haka's games and 78% of Gnistan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haka vs Gnistan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Haka's recent games and 56% of Gnistan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and Gnistan tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Gnistan in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gnistan defy the odds to beat Haka 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gnistan beat Haka 1-2 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 17, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 2.43 xG and Gnistan 1.39 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Haka fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 1.20 / defence 0.93 against Gnistan attack 1.00 / defence 1.26, drawn from 38/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 60% | Draw 21% | Gnistan 20%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Gnistan win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 50%, Gnistan 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Gnistan's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Haka arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Gnistan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Haka (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gnistan (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.