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Shock result as FF Jaro defy the odds to beat Haka 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FF Jaro beat Haka 0-1 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.35 xG and FF Jaro 1.18 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Haka fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 0.97 / defence 0.95 against FF Jaro attack 0.76 / defence 0.88, drawn from 26/4 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Haka 41% | Draw 27% | FF Jaro 33%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual FF Jaro win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 100%, FF Jaro 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, FF Jaro arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Haka managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights