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Prediction vindicated as AC Oulu edge out Haka 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AC Oulu beat Haka 0-1 at Tehtaan kenttä, Relegation Round - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.55 xG and AC Oulu 1.78 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Haka fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 0.83 / defence 1.18 against AC Oulu attack 0.91 / defence 1.12, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Haka 33% | Draw 25% | AC Oulu 43%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 66%, AC Oulu 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Haka's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

AC Oulu's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Haka 1.10 PPG, AC Oulu 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Oulu win broke the near-deadlock. Haka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. AC Oulu (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights