Most Likely Outcome
Gnistan Win
56%
1.77
25%
3.95
18%
5.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Gnistan xG
Total xG
2.74
0.94
SJK xG
GnistanDrawSJK
1.77
56%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
5.45
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
3%
32.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
λ Home (xG)
1.798
λ Away (xG)
0.943
Total xG
2.741
League avg home goals
1.379
League avg away goals
0.962
Gnistan attack strength
1.272
Gnistan defence strength
1.249
SJK attack strength
0.785
SJK defence strength
1.024
Data phase
CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A)
30 / 30