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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gnistan and SJK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gnistan and SJK finished level at 2-2 at Mustapekka Areena, Regular Season - 7, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gnistan 1.20 xG and SJK 1.17 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Gnistan beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SJK outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gnistan attack 0.99 / defence 0.88 against SJK attack 0.84 / defence 0.79, drawn from 28/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gnistan 37% | Draw 28% | SJK 35%, with Gnistan to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gnistan 61%, SJK 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gnistan's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

SJK's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gnistan 1.35 PPG, SJK 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gnistan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights