Gnistan 2-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gnistan at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gnistan vs Mariehamn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 15 as Gnistan welcome Mariehamn to Bolt Arena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 21 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gnistan — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gnistan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bolt Arena, Gnistan have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Mariehamn have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Gnistan have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Gnistan have won 0, Mariehamn 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Gnistan in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Mariehamn in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gnistan 52% versus Mariehamn 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gnistan 62% | Mariehamn 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gnistan 1.35 xG and Mariehamn 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gnistan attack 0.788 / defence 1.008 | Mariehamn attack 0.708 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 1.315. Gnistan's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Gnistan games / 41 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gnistan 46% | Draw 29% | Mariehamn 26%. Fair-value odds: Gnistan 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Mariehamn 3.85. Gnistan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gnistan are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gnistan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Gnistan 30% | Mariehamn 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gnistan vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Bolt Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gnistan 46% | Draw 29% | Mariehamn 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Gnistan 1.35 / Mariehamn 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Gnistan attack 0.788 / def 1.008 | Mariehamn attack 0.708 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.678 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Gnistan (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Gnistan xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Mariehamn xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gnistan vs Mariehamn kick off?
Gnistan vs Mariehamn kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 21 August 2024 at Bolt Arena.
What was the final score in Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Gnistan 2 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is Gnistan vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Bolt Arena.
What competition is Gnistan vs Mariehamn part of?
Gnistan vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Gnistan a 46% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gnistan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Gnistan and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Gnistan vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gnistan and Mariehamn?
Record (3 meetings): Gnistan 0W | Draws 2 | Mariehamn 1W.
What form are Gnistan and Mariehamn in?
Gnistan (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Mariehamn (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gnistan's attack at 0.79x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus Gnistan's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gnistan Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.46
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Gnistan xG
Total xG
2.28
0.94
Mariehamn xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
7%
15.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Gnistan and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Gnistan and 0.94 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gnistan's recent record stands at 6W 6D 9L from 21 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Gnistan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 10L across 21 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gnistan on 1.14 PPG, Mariehamn on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gnistan have managed 4W 2D 4L from 10 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 2W 2D 6L across 10 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gnistan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gnistan are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 0.95 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gnistan
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gnistan and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Gnistan have gone 6W 6D 9L in their last 21 games (1.14 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 5W 6D 10L in their last 21 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gnistan at home or Mariehamn away?
Gnistan's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gnistan at home: 1.40 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gnistan and Mariehamn runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gnistan have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2023, when Mariehamn won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gnistan's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Gnistan
2
Draws
1
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gnistan and Mariehamn?
From 9 meetings on record, Gnistan have won 6, Mariehamn have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gnistan and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Gnistan 4-2 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Gnistan and Mariehamn?
Gnistan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gnistan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Gnistan 30% BTTS, Mariehamn 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Gnistan) and 50% (Mariehamn). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gnistan keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Gnistan have failed to score in 50% of games; Mariehamn in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gnistan home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gnistan play Mariehamn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Gnistan's recent matches and 40% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gnistan vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Gnistan's matches and 50% of Mariehamn's.
Do Gnistan and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Gnistan have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gnistan edge out Mariehamn 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gnistan beat Mariehamn 2-1 at Bolt Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gnistan 1.35 xG and Mariehamn 0.94 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gnistan attack 0.79 / defence 1.01 against Mariehamn attack 0.71 / defence 1.02, drawn from 19/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gnistan 46% | Draw 29% | Mariehamn 26%, with Gnistan to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gnistan 62%, Mariehamn 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gnistan's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gnistan 1.14 PPG, Mariehamn 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gnistan win broke the near-deadlock. Gnistan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.