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Dominant KuPS run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Gnistan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KuPS beat Gnistan 0-4 at Mustapekka Areena, Championship Round - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gnistan 1.25 xG and KuPS 1.50 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Gnistan fell 1.3 short of their projected output. KuPS outscored their 1.50 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gnistan attack 0.95 / defence 1.00 against KuPS attack 0.91 / defence 0.79, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gnistan 31% | Draw 27% | KuPS 42%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gnistan 61%, KuPS 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gnistan's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

KuPS's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Gnistan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights