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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Gnistan edge out Kooteepee 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gnistan beat Kooteepee 2-1 at Mustapekka Areena, Regular Season - 10, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gnistan 1.95 xG and Kooteepee 1.35 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gnistan attack 0.92 / defence 1.03 against Kooteepee attack 0.89 / defence 1.55, drawn from 31/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gnistan 52% | Draw 22% | Kooteepee 26%, with Gnistan to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gnistan 59%, Kooteepee 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gnistan's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Kooteepee's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Gnistan arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.74. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights