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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gnistan and Inter Turku share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Mustapekka Areena, Regular Season - 12, as Gnistan and Inter Turku drew 2-2 in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gnistan 0.96 xG and Inter Turku 1.56 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Gnistan beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gnistan attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Inter Turku attack 1.06 / defence 0.74, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gnistan 23% | Draw 25% | Inter Turku 51%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gnistan 61%, Inter Turku 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gnistan's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Inter Turku's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gnistan 1.35 PPG, Inter Turku 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gnistan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inter Turku (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights