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Ilves cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Gnistan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ilves beat Gnistan 0-2 at Mustapekka Areena, Regular Season - 9, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gnistan 1.72 xG and Ilves 1.58 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Gnistan fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gnistan attack 1.05 / defence 0.99 against Ilves attack 1.09 / defence 1.13, drawn from 30/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gnistan 41% | Draw 23% | Ilves 36%, with Gnistan to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Ilves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gnistan 61%, Ilves 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gnistan's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Ilves's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.35. Form held, and they took the win. Gnistan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ilves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights