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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gnistan cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Haka.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gnistan beat Haka 2-0 at Mustapekka Areena, Regular Season - 15, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gnistan 1.55 xG and Haka 1.50 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Haka landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gnistan attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Haka attack 0.98 / defence 1.03, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gnistan 38% | Draw 26% | Haka 36%, with Gnistan to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gnistan 60%, Haka 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gnistan's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Haka's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gnistan 1.35 PPG, Haka 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gnistan win broke the near-deadlock. Gnistan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Haka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights