Gnistan 0-3 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haka at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gnistan vs Haka encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Haka make the trip to Mustapekka Areena to face Gnistan in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gnistan have collected 0.50 PPG across 2 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 0W 1D 1L. Last five: D L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Gnistan have played only a handful of Veikkausliiga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Haka's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Haka are 1.40 PPG clear of Gnistan in recent Veikkausliiga fixtures (1.90 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gnistan 1.19 xG and Haka 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gnistan attack 0.791 / defence 1.045 | Haka attack 0.948 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.334. Gnistan's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Gnistan games / 26 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gnistan 30% | Draw 34% | Haka 36%. Fair-value odds: Gnistan 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Haka 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haka are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haka if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gnistan vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Mustapekka Areena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gnistan 30% | Draw 34% | Haka 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 55% | xG Gnistan 1.19 / Haka 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Gnistan attack 0.791 / def 1.045 | Haka attack 0.948 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Haka (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Gnistan xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Haka xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gnistan vs Haka kick off?
Gnistan vs Haka kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Mustapekka Areena.
What was the final score in Gnistan vs Haka?
Gnistan 0 - 3 Haka.
Where is Gnistan vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Mustapekka Areena.
What competition is Gnistan vs Haka part of?
Gnistan vs Haka is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Gnistan vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives Gnistan a 30% chance of winning, Haka a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gnistan vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Gnistan and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will Gnistan vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gnistan and Haka?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gnistan and Haka in?
Gnistan (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L. Haka (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gnistan's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Haka's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Haka's attack (0.95x) against Gnistan's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 4/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
30%
3.36
34%
2.93
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Gnistan xG
Total xG
2.51
1.32
Haka xG
3.36
30%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
8%
12.59
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.7 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gnistan vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Gnistan and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Gnistan and 1.32 for Haka, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Gnistan vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gnistan come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 1D 1L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L. It's still early in the season for Gnistan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Haka sit at 2.00 PPG from 2 outings (1W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Haka, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Haka carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Gnistan — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gnistan are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.50 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gnistan have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gnistan have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Haka in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gnistan
Early Season
Haka
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gnistan and Haka in coming into this match?
Gnistan have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Haka have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Gnistan or Haka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gnistan have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Haka in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 July 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haka won 0-3 on 5 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gnistan have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Haka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Gnistan
1
Draws
2
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gnistan and Haka?
From 5 meetings on record, Gnistan have won 2, Haka have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gnistan and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 13 July 2025, when Gnistan 2-0 Haka.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gnistan home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gnistan play Haka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Gnistan's recent matches and 50% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gnistan vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gnistan's recent games and 0% of Haka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gnistan and Haka tend to score early?
Gnistan have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Haka in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Haka run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Gnistan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat Gnistan 0-3 at Mustapekka Areena, Regular Season - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gnistan 1.19 xG and Haka 1.32 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Gnistan fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Haka outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gnistan attack 0.79 / defence 1.04 against Haka attack 0.95 / defence 0.99, drawn from 4/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gnistan 30% | Draw 34% | Haka 36%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gnistan 50%, Haka 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Haka arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Gnistan shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Haka scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.