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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FF Jaro and VPS share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Project Liv Arena, Regular Season - 17, as FF Jaro and VPS drew 2-2 in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FF Jaro 1.13 xG and VPS 1.84 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FF Jaro beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FF Jaro attack 0.66 / defence 1.05 against VPS attack 1.21 / defence 1.10, drawn from 16/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FF Jaro 22% | Draw 25% | VPS 53%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FF Jaro 44%, VPS 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FF Jaro's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

VPS's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FF Jaro 1.00 PPG, VPS 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FF Jaro (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights