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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant SJK run riot with a 0-4 hammering of FF Jaro.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SJK beat FF Jaro 0-4 at Project Liv Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FF Jaro 1.43 xG and SJK 1.67 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. FF Jaro fell 1.4 short of their projected output. SJK outscored their 1.67 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FF Jaro attack 0.78 / defence 1.01 against SJK attack 1.07 / defence 1.16, drawn from 19/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FF Jaro 32% | Draw 26% | SJK 42%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FF Jaro 48%, SJK 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FF Jaro's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SJK's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FF Jaro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SJK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights