🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FF Jaro and Mariehamn share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FF Jaro and Mariehamn finished level at 1-1 at Jakobstads Centralplan, Regular Season - 14, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FF Jaro 1.16 xG and Mariehamn 1.28 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FF Jaro attack 0.73 / defence 1.13 against Mariehamn attack 0.73 / defence 1.05, drawn from 13/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FF Jaro 33% | Draw 28% | Mariehamn 39%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FF Jaro 47%, Mariehamn 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FF Jaro's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Mariehamn's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FF Jaro 1.13 PPG, Mariehamn 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mariehamn (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights