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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Kooteepee edge out FF Jaro 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kooteepee beat FF Jaro 2-3 at Jakobstads Centralplan, Regular Season - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FF Jaro 1.40 xG and Kooteepee 1.48 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Kooteepee outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FF Jaro attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Kooteepee attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it FF Jaro 36% | Draw 25% | Kooteepee 39%, with Kooteepee to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FF Jaro 0%, Kooteepee 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, FF Jaro arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Kooteepee winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FF Jaro scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kooteepee scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights