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Prediction vindicated as Inter Turku edge out FF Jaro 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter Turku beat FF Jaro 0-1 at Jakobstads Centralplan, Regular Season - 9, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FF Jaro 0.83 xG and Inter Turku 2.19 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FF Jaro fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Inter Turku landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FF Jaro attack 0.74 / defence 1.29 against Inter Turku attack 1.15 / defence 0.79, drawn from 8/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FF Jaro 13% | Draw 19% | Inter Turku 68%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FF Jaro 0%, Inter Turku 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FF Jaro 1.50 PPG, Inter Turku 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inter Turku win broke the near-deadlock. FF Jaro managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Inter Turku managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights