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Prediction vindicated as Ilves edge out FF Jaro 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ilves beat FF Jaro 0-1 at Jakobstads Centralplan, Regular Season - 16, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FF Jaro 0.82 xG and Ilves 2.23 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FF Jaro fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Ilves landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FF Jaro attack 0.72 / defence 1.14 against Ilves attack 1.33 / defence 0.73, drawn from 15/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FF Jaro 11% | Draw 20% | Ilves 68%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FF Jaro 47%, Ilves 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FF Jaro's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Ilves's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. FF Jaro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights