🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as FF Jaro defy the odds to beat Haka 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FF Jaro beat Haka 2-1 at Project Liv Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FF Jaro 1.21 xG and Haka 1.38 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FF Jaro attack 0.73 / defence 1.02 against Haka attack 0.87 / defence 1.06, drawn from 18/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FF Jaro 32% | Draw 28% | Haka 40%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual FF Jaro win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FF Jaro 45%, Haka 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FF Jaro's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Haka's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FF Jaro 1.10 PPG, Haka 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FF Jaro win broke the near-deadlock. FF Jaro (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights