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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AC Oulu edge out FF Jaro 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AC Oulu beat FF Jaro 1-2 at Project Liv Arena, Relegation Round - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FF Jaro 1.27 xG and AC Oulu 1.80 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FF Jaro attack 0.68 / defence 1.20 against AC Oulu attack 0.91 / defence 1.12, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FF Jaro 26% | Draw 25% | AC Oulu 49%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FF Jaro 54%, AC Oulu 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FF Jaro's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

AC Oulu's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FF Jaro 1.17 PPG, AC Oulu 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Oulu win broke the near-deadlock. AC Oulu (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights