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Shock result as FF Jaro defy the odds to beat AC Oulu 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FF Jaro beat AC Oulu 2-1 at Jakobstads Centralplan, Regular Season - 11, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FF Jaro 1.04 xG and AC Oulu 1.63 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. FF Jaro beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FF Jaro attack 0.70 / defence 1.17 against AC Oulu attack 0.90 / defence 1.10, drawn from 10/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FF Jaro 24% | Draw 25% | AC Oulu 51%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a FF Jaro win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FF Jaro 0%, AC Oulu 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, FF Jaro arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. FF Jaro scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.