EIF 1-2 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this EIF vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Mariehamn travel to Ekenäs Sparbank Arena TN to take on EIF. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 19 June 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Mariehamn have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Mariehamn away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for EIF, 1 for Mariehamn and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 2–3 with Mariehamn winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects EIF 1.04 xG and Mariehamn 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: EIF attack 0.682 / defence 1.034 | Mariehamn attack 0.824 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.280. EIF's attack strength of 0.682 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 EIF games / 33 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: EIF 32% | Draw 34% | Mariehamn 35%. Fair-value odds: EIF 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Mariehamn 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mariehamn as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: EIF vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Ekenäs Sparbank Arena TN • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Jun 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: EIF 32% | Draw 34% | Mariehamn 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG EIF 1.04 / Mariehamn 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: EIF attack 0.682 / def 1.034 | Mariehamn attack 0.824 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
EIF xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Mariehamn xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does EIF vs Mariehamn kick off?
EIF vs Mariehamn kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 19 June 2024 at Ekenäs Sparbank Arena TN.
What was the final score in EIF vs Mariehamn?
EIF 1 - 2 Mariehamn.
Where is EIF vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Ekenäs Sparbank Arena TN.
What competition is EIF vs Mariehamn part of?
EIF vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win EIF vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives EIF a 32% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in EIF vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both EIF and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will EIF vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between EIF and Mariehamn?
Record (1 meetings): EIF 0W | Draws 0 | Mariehamn 1W.
What form are EIF and Mariehamn in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Mariehamn away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
EIF's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Mariehamn's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus EIF's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
32%
3.14
34%
2.97
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
EIF xG
Total xG
2.13
1.09
Mariehamn xG
3.14
32%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
11%
9.35
12%
8.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for EIF vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are EIF and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for EIF and 1.09 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for EIF vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
EIF
Pre-Season
Mariehamn
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between EIF and Mariehamn runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mariehamn have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when Mariehamn won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
0
EIF
0
Draws
3
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between EIF and Mariehamn?
From 3 meetings on record, EIF have won 0, Mariehamn have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did EIF and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2024, when Mariehamn 3-0 EIF.
Who has won more matches between EIF and Mariehamn?
Mariehamn have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = EIF home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Mariehamn edge out EIF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat EIF 1-2 at Ekenäs Sparbank Arena TN, Regular Season - 12, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting EIF 1.04 xG and Mariehamn 1.09 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Mariehamn outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of EIF attack 0.68 / defence 1.03 against Mariehamn attack 0.82 / defence 1.00, drawn from 11/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it EIF 32% | Draw 34% | Mariehamn 35%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.