EIF 1-2 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this EIF vs KuPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees KuPS travel to Ekenäs Sparbank Arena TN to take on EIF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 July 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, EIF stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for EIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
EIF's home record at Ekenäs Sparbank Arena TN: 1W 2D 4L from 7 Veikkausliiga appearances (0.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, KuPS have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour KuPS — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, EIF have won 0, KuPS 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 1–4 with KuPS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
EIF in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
KuPS in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — EIF 69% and KuPS 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (EIF 62% | KuPS 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects EIF 0.77 xG and KuPS 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: EIF attack 0.587 / defence 1.461 | KuPS attack 0.883 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.509. EIF's attack strength of 0.587 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 EIF games / 38 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: EIF 13% | Draw 23% | KuPS 64%. Fair-value odds: EIF 7.69 | Draw 4.35 | KuPS 1.56. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (64%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, KuPS are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: EIF 57% | KuPS 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: EIF vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Ekenäs Sparbank Arena TN • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: EIF 13% | Draw 23% | KuPS 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 47% | xG EIF 0.77 / KuPS 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: EIF attack 0.587 / def 1.461 | KuPS attack 0.883 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.509 • Poisson stance: KuPS (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
EIF xG
Expected Goals
1.95
KuPS xG
47%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does EIF vs KuPS kick off?
EIF vs KuPS kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Ekenäs Sparbank Arena TN.
What was the final score in EIF vs KuPS?
EIF 1 - 2 KuPS.
Where is EIF vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Ekenäs Sparbank Arena TN.
What competition is EIF vs KuPS part of?
EIF vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win EIF vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives EIF a 13% chance of winning, KuPS a 64% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in EIF vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both EIF and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will EIF vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between EIF and KuPS?
Record (1 meetings): EIF 0W | Draws 0 | KuPS 1W.
What form are EIF and KuPS in?
EIF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. KuPS (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
EIF's attacking strength (0.59x league average) is weighed against KuPS's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.77. The same calculation in reverse, KuPS's attack versus EIF's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 12.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
13%
7.76
23%
4.29
64%
1.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
EIF xG
Total xG
2.72
1.95
KuPS xG
7.76
13%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
1.57
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
14%
7.00
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
2%
54.35
29%
3.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 12.8 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for EIF vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are EIF and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for EIF and 1.95 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for EIF vs KuPS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
EIF come into this having played 16 games, going 3W 3D 10L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for EIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, KuPS sit at 1.94 PPG from 16 outings (9W 4D 3L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.19 PPG clear of EIF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
EIF's home form reads 1W 2D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.71 PPG return.
Away from home, KuPS have taken 1.57 points per game from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
EIF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.75 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: EIF have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; KuPS in 69%.
Last 16 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
EIF
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are EIF and KuPS in coming into this match?
EIF have gone 3W 3D 10L in their last 16 games (0.75 PPG), while KuPS have gone 9W 4D 3L in their last 16 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — EIF at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — EIF at home: 0.71 PPG; KuPS away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
EIF
0
Draws
2
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between EIF and KuPS?
From 2 meetings on record, EIF have won 0, KuPS have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did EIF and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2024, when EIF 1-2 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between EIF and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
EIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — EIF 57%, KuPS 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (EIF) and 43% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: EIF have failed to score in 29% of games; KuPS in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = EIF home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when EIF play KuPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of EIF's games and 57% of KuPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is EIF vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of EIF's recent games and 43% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do EIF and KuPS tend to score early?
EIF have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, KuPS in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KuPS edge out EIF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat EIF 1-2 at Ekenäs Sparbank Arena TN, Regular Season - 17, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting EIF 0.77 xG and KuPS 1.95 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of EIF attack 0.59 / defence 1.46 against KuPS attack 0.88 / defence 0.83, drawn from 16/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it EIF 13% | Draw 23% | KuPS 64%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (EIF 62%, KuPS 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
EIF's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
KuPS's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.