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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as AC Oulu defy the odds to beat VPS 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AC Oulu beat VPS 2-1 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.24 xG and VPS 2.76 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. VPS landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.81 / defence 1.40 against VPS attack 1.30 / defence 1.01, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 15% | Draw 16% | VPS 69%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a AC Oulu win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 61%, VPS 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AC Oulu's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

VPS's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, VPS arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with AC Oulu winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VPS (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights