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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AC Oulu and SJK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AC Oulu and SJK finished level at 2-2 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.37 xG and SJK 1.90 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.85 / defence 1.30 against SJK attack 0.97 / defence 1.09, drawn from 31/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 28% | Draw 22% | SJK 50%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 61%, SJK 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AC Oulu's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

SJK's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AC Oulu 1.20 PPG, SJK 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights