AC Oulu 1-2 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AC Oulu at 37%, yet in-form SJK provide a compelling counter-argument — this AC Oulu vs SJK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AC Oulu and SJK meet at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Monday 8 July 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
AC Oulu's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu at Raatin stadion this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — AC Oulu are significantly better at Raatin stadion than their overall form suggests.
SJK (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SJK have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SJK are 0.70 PPG clear of AC Oulu in recent Veikkausliiga fixtures (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for AC Oulu, 3 for SJK and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with SJK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
AC Oulu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AC Oulu 74% and SJK 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 67% | SJK 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.34 xG and SJK 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.866 / defence 0.877 | SJK attack 1.074 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.327. Data: 35 AC Oulu games / 36 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 37% | Draw 31% | SJK 33%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | SJK 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AC Oulu as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SJK (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AC Oulu if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AC Oulu 70% | SJK 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Monday 8 Jul 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 37% | Draw 31% | SJK 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG AC Oulu 1.34 / SJK 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.866 / def 0.877 | SJK attack 1.074 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.25
SJK xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs SJK kick off?
AC Oulu vs SJK kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 8 July 2024 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs SJK?
AC Oulu 1 - 2 SJK.
Where is AC Oulu vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs SJK part of?
AC Oulu vs SJK is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 37% chance of winning, SJK a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both AC Oulu and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and SJK?
Record (6 meetings): AC Oulu 2W | Draws 1 | SJK 3W.
What form are AC Oulu and SJK in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. SJK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AC Oulu's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against SJK's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — SJK's attack (1.07x) against AC Oulu's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
37%
2.72
31%
3.27
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.59
1.25
SJK xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
11%
9.49
9%
11.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.25 for SJK, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, AC Oulu have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 13W 12D 17L record — W-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SJK's form line: 19W 11D 12L from 42 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SJK are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AC Oulu.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, AC Oulu have posted 1.58 PPG from 19 outings (8W 6D 5L).
On the road, SJK have gone 7W 7D 5L from 19 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AC Oulu are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.45 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Oulu have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Blended
SJK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and SJK in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 13W 12D 17L in their last 42 games (1.21 PPG), while SJK have gone 19W 11D 12L in their last 42 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or SJK away?
AC Oulu's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.58 PPG; SJK away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SJK won 0-3 on 29 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
AC Oulu
2
Draws
5
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 3, SJK have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when SJK 0-1 AC Oulu.
Who has won more matches between AC Oulu and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 68%, SJK 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (AC Oulu) and 42% (SJK).
On the defensive side: SJK in 37%; SJK in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play SJK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of AC Oulu's games and 47% of SJK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AC Oulu vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of AC Oulu's recent games and 42% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Oulu and SJK tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, SJK in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SJK defy the odds to beat AC Oulu 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat AC Oulu 1-2 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.34 xG and SJK 1.25 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.87 / defence 0.88 against SJK attack 1.07 / defence 0.99, drawn from 35/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 37% | Draw 31% | SJK 33%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual SJK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 67%, SJK 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (42 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
SJK's trading profile (42 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.