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Shock result as Mariehamn defy the odds to beat AC Oulu 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mariehamn beat AC Oulu 0-1 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.73 xG and Mariehamn 1.68 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AC Oulu fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.98 / defence 1.31 against Mariehamn attack 0.77 / defence 1.13, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 40% | Draw 23% | Mariehamn 38%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Mariehamn win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 61%, Mariehamn 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AC Oulu's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Mariehamn's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AC Oulu 1.20 PPG, Mariehamn 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. AC Oulu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Mariehamn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights